A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
